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Where I come to be wrong... and some might learn something
Yes, not to but and.
Everything in Transcaucasia 6th and 5th millennia seems to be Something-to-Ubaid.
I myself in my Shulaveri2Bellbeakers, have the Ubaid as culprits for the dismiss of the Shulaveri-Shomu from their homeland, hence starting the spread of PIE into the rest of Eurasia.
What about Kura-araxes (Armenia Chalcolithic) and their weird genetic?
When I wrote my “essay” was in a frenetic rhythm. With only weeks of research and speed writing chapter after chapter. For sure I was in a hurry to get out of South Caucasus, has it was the purpose of the “essay”. From Shulaveri to Bell beakers.
Many things were left unfinished, poorly defined, mostly by my then complete ignorance and lack of interest - Get out of there, was my moto.
Now, two years later what can I say about it?
Something amid the likes of Jeitun Culture at the Keltiminar Culture was part of the movement, of a push through north Iran , around shouth Caspian and into Azerbaijan, to South Caucasus.
The Shulaveri vanished at the moment Northern Iran and Iraq was moving north as Ubaid but simultaneously eastern Caspian Sea people moved to Azerbaijan and brought the eastern admix that is seen in Armenia_chalc from the Kura-Araxes as well as the L1a haplogroup, better represented as Sarazm people.
A good modeler posting in Eurogenes, Alberto, has them as Armenia_ChL
Sarazm_Eneolithic 31.7%
Tisza_LN 28.3%
CHG 12.5%
Levant_N 10.6%
So, this is the Kura-Araxes.
Must remember that some of their ancestry must come from the SIONI, that is usually seen as the transition from Shulaveri to Kura-araxes but somewhat too many times linked to Leilatepe. But that is misleading. Kura-araxes as a component of Shulaveri from Balkans (Tisza_LN) has a mix of Tisza and CHG from sioni. Sioni was actually mostly the Shulaveri shomu neighbors from west Georgia, towards the Black sea , represented earlier as Paluri group, Anaseuli group, Odishi , etc.
When Shulaveri vanished, their less developed neighbors, the Sioni, kinda of moved in. They noticed the coming of Uruk like people making the Leilatepe, but never mixed much. Instead mixed well with that previous mentioned Kopet Dag and made Kura-araxes. In opposition to Uruk people. Most likely.
But the Shulaveri were already moving spreading PIE. The Kura-araxes remain spreading the Hattic language and the sons of Uruk the Sumerian and Akkadian.
The rest you already know.